UdZ 01.21

UdZ 2-2021 / 51 Crisis identification Krisenszenarien- generation Krisenszenarien- generation Krisenszenarien- generation Crisis scenarios- generation Maßnahmendefinition Maßnahmendefinition Political actors Maßnahmendefinition Maßnahmendefinition Economic actors Risk assessment Risk assessment Krisenereignis Crisis scenarios Crisis scenarios Individual risk assessment Individual risk assessment Pool of measures Energy data Health data Traffic data Definition of measures Definition of measures Figure 1: Schematic functioning of the platform crisis situations can be derived, which are subsequently fed back anonymously into the crisis scenario generator (Figure 1). This results in an iterative precision of the scenarios with simultaneous continuous adaptation of all responsemeasures. The resulting information base serves as the best possible preparation for potential crisis situations and thus increases the resilience of business locations. From a user perspective, the PAIRS platform enables economic and political stakeholders to anticipate the reciprocal influences of individual measures and incorporate them into their own decisions. The integration of reactions to an initial crisis event into specific crisis scenarios enables dynamic crisis management. By linking associated IT systems, concrete risks for the individual players (e.g. economic in the form of supplier default or political in the form of a sharp rise in insolvencies) are automatically identified and evaluated. Catalogs of measures derived from the platform help the players to select the best possible response strategy. The selected response measures of the individual actors are fed anonymously to the PAIRS platform and serve to detail the current crisis scenarios by identifying the macroeconomic and political responses available to all platform participants. This results in an iterative learning process that takes into account the interactions of all actors involved. Accordingly, e.g. operators of critical infrastructures (e.g. energy, health, etc.) as well as political actors (e.g. government institutions, NGOs, etc.) can derive and deploy their measures in a targeted manner on the basis of the specific image of the current and future crisis situation (taking into account all reactions). This research project focuses on three use case areas covering a broad spectrum of critical processes. 1. The use case from the “logistics/production/SCM” area deals with the challenge that transport requirements and market structures change within a very short time in crisis situations. With the PAIRS platform, companies and logistics service providers can identify changes in market balance early (e.g., increase in demand for hygiene supplies), take action (e.g., build inventory, set up temporary storage locations, assess the impact on their supply network), analyze the impact of their initiatives, and monitor the situation in real time. 2. The use case “healthcare” was chosen because pandemics, especially in the healthcare sector, can have fatal consequences for patients (underuse), hospitals (overuse), and medical device providers. With the help of the results of the ‘PAIRS’ project, services are to be developed on the basis of data from hospital information systems that warn of epidemics at an early stage and in a spatially differentiated manner and provide the players involved with concrete input for forward-looking demand planning for crisis management. This could prevent or at least mitigate catastrophic effects for the overall population in the event of a crisis. 3. The “energy” use case addresses a central and critical infrastructure. Since energy supply has an impact on