UdZ 3-2011

32 Unternehmen der Zukunft 3/2011 UdZ Dienstleistungsmanagement In the second step, experts of the signalling busi- ness developed demonstrative graphs, tables and equations, which show the degree of variation of certain parameters as a function of the variation of another parameter. The graphs, tables and equations provided the quantitative basis for the common business model and pave the way for a simulation of effects the implementation of ERTMS as a standard technology might have. Thus, the quantitative approach leads to a more detailed picture of the European signalling market by making the influence of changing parameters in the system measurable. Based on the results of the steps explained above, a simulation tool has been built up to simulate the present mechanism and the future developments within the European signalling market. Therefore, a software tool called VenSim developed by Ventana Systems has been applied for the simulation. The VenSim software explains systems´ behaviour by demonstrating functional interrelationships of different parameters like the variation of global market interrelationships. Further, it is an open source program, which is accessiblefree of charge. Results of the simulation analysis Using the simulation tool described above, it was possible to evaluate the effects the implementa- tion of ERTMS as a standard technology for the European Signalling market will have. From an industry perspective, the planned standardisation activities will support the supplying industry to enter newmarkets. Apart from that, they will lead to a decrease of the overall development costs of the suppliers. These savings can be reinvested in the development process of innovative compo- nents and thus enable the supplying industry to open up new business segments. On the other hand, the standardisation of interfaces will lead to an increase of the numbers of competitors on the domestic market of each industry partner. This is why both the competitive pressure as well as the pricing pressure will increase within the European signalling market. Furthermore, the availability of public interface specifications could open up the European si- gnalling market for Non-European competitors. In addition, an established interface specification might lead to an increase of national require- ments on a functional level. These increasing re- quirements have to be addressed by the industry and thus lead to a further cost pressure. From a railway perspective, the increasing com- petition caused by standardisation activities will lead to lower prices per unit within the European signalling market. Similar to the industry per- spective, the railway companies can reinvest their savings in order to invest respectively to procure new and more innovative technologies. Thus, the standardisation activity would lead to an indirect increase of the supplier volume that corresponds to the available investment budget in the interlocking respectively signalling market. Conclusion In summary the System Dynamics approach facilitated the development of a business model that integrates all significant parameters of the European signalling market and their interrela- tionships. It paved the way for a simulation of relevant market mechanism and hence enabled an evaluation of effects the implementation of ERTMS as a standard technology will have. Finally, the INESS business model provides a basis for elementary decisions regarding further initiations of harmonisation activities. Thomas Hirsch, M.A. (li.) FIR, Bereich Dienstleistungsmanagement Fachgruppe Community-Management Tel.: +49 241 47705-223 E-Mail: Thomas.Hirsch@fir.rwth-aachen.de Dipl.-Kfm. Christian Hoffart (mi.) FIR, Bereich Dienstleistungsmanagement Gruppenleiter Community-Management Tel.: +49 241 47705-227 E-Mail: Christian.Hoffart@fir.rwth-aachen.de Dipl.-Ing. Philipp Stüer (re.) FIR, Bereich Dienstleistungsmanagement Fachgruppe Lean Services Tel.: +49 241 47705-221 E-Mail: Philipp.St üer@fir.rwth-aachen.de